He’s beating up on sinkers as well, again showing discipline to lay off those outside the zone but attacking those within with more frequency. why bother bringing up home/road splits? His average fly ball distance of 335 feet is 17 feet further than in 2018, and represents an improvement of 13 feet relative to the league averages (319 feet last year, 323 feet this year). He’s prone to chasing them, and his swinging strike rate against them has risen significantly. On the heels of the record-setting free agent contract that he signed in February, Manny Machado’s career with the Padres began inauspiciously. On the other hand, Machado’s performance against sliders has eroded, though last year’s 142 wRC+ against them was itself an anomaly given his career mark of 96. That carried into June; through the games of June 12, his line stood at .240/.329/.397 with 10 home runs and a 93 wRC+, placing him in the 25th percentile among all MLB qualifiers. This distribution is essentially his career average that includes his 2012.

You can flag a comment by clicking its flag icon. Maybe he isn’t seeing the ball well at home or he is pressing too much. The 26-year-old superstar agreed to terms on his 10-year, $300-million deal with the Padres on February 19, officially signed two days later, and thus got a late jump on spring training. He hit just .236/.325/.368 in March and April, and as recently as June 12 was slugging less than .400.

Off the bat, it’s worth remembering that this hasn’t been a typical season for Machado. Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,

He posted a somewhat disappointing 7.9% mark last year and generally didn’t show a whole lot of home run power in the minors either. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age.

by Karl de Vries! Machado posted the highest BABIP among all qualified hitters with at least a 15% IFFB%. If it doesn’t seem all that long ago that Manny Machado was the darling of prospect hounds and fantasy dreamers, well, that’s because it hasn’t been; the 2010 first round draft pick made his debut just two seasons ago, broke out as an all-star last year and was barely drinking age on opening day back in April. by Handedness, Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance. Power is typically the last tool to fully develop and I see his league leading 51 doubles in 2013 turning into at least 25-30 home run power over the next year or two so long as he can remain relatively healthy. Furthermore, he posted sub-.300 BABIP marks at every minor league stop (excluding his small sample stint at Low-A in 2010). Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries. Of course, he’s also had two seasons cut short by major knee operations, the first one to repair a full tear of his medial patellofemoral ligament in his left knee last year, and the second to fix a partial tear of the same ligament in his right knee back in August. That said, given that he’s on close to a 5-WAR pace through his first half season in San Diego, it would be disingenuous and a tad ridiculous to argue that Machado has been a bust, or pretend that he couldn’t have helped most of the other clubs who shunned him in free agency.
He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself.

Below is my final projected fantasy batting line, along with the other systems for comparison. Game-logs are useful too. Website admin will know that you reported it. Monthly splits can tell you a lot.

I’m not sure what drafters are expecting, since it’s clear I’m not that much more pessimistic than the other systems. Manny Machado (ESPN: 0 percent owned; Yahoo!

The Orioles lineup could look a bit different this year with question marks at the bottom of the lineup given their second base and left field battles. That coincided with a surge in his ground balls and a pop-up rate of nearly 20 percent.

Machado Pitch Type Comparison, 2018 vs. 201919.

Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. We hoped you liked reading Manny Machado, Marked Down? All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. While all this seems to suggest that maybe a .300 BABIP might actually still be too high, he did hit a solid rate of liners and has enough speed to take advantage of his ground ball tilt. He’s pulling the ball a bit less often (35.4% versus last year’s 38.1%), but his pulled fly-ball rate has barely budged. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Machado’s NFBC ADP is 113th overall, yet my projected line valued him as just the 203rd most valuable player in a similar 15-team league format.

His rolling averages over his last 50 batted balls are generally better than at the start of the year, so I don’t think that there’s much to suggest this is anything but typical variance. Towards the end of the month, however, he fell into a 4-for-40 slump, his worst stretch of the season. Machado is still amid controversy, awaiting word on his one-game suspension stemming from a June 15 ejection in Colorado after which he threw his helmet and other equipment, and may or may not have made contact with home plate umpire Bill Welke. Of more concern is that he’s making hard contact less frequently (43.2% versus last year’s 48.0%, which has dropped him from the 94th percentile to the 73rd) and his .348 xwOBA is about 25 points below his 2016-18 numbers (he’s dropped from last year’s 90th percentile to the 64th this year). Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email. I think people are excited about his long term projection more than single season. It’s worth digging into his pitch splits (via Pitch Info): Machado is seeing far more four-seam fastballs than last year, and he’s flat-out destroying them, but while not only rarely chasing but also laying off an even greater share of those in the strike zone; his swinging strike rate against the heater has remained constant.

He was at 88 and 71, respectively, last year, but with the decline in plate appearances comes a decline in these counting stats.

He’s great player who all told has merely banked a pretty good half-season, not a stellar one. I wouldn’t call him a bust, but not sure he is fine either.

Manny is currently hitting .232/.297/.421 for a 88 wrc+ at his home ballpark. As a result, he may not be ready for opening day and the uncertainty is reducing his draft cost.

Great keeper league asset, not so much as a one year player. That incident drew an embarrassingly disproportionate response from the umpires’ union, and while it may have earned Machado a bit of sympathy in some quarters, it didn’t lessen the scrutiny on him. and actions (clipping Jesus Aguilar’s heel at first base, plus a few questionable slides) served to heighten the pressure on him to deliver from the outset of his Padres career. I agree with all these points.

But if we split up Machado’s season just a little bit — in this case, removing his terrible first month back, which we’ll blame on him being cold and coming off major surgery — we see that he did, in fact, put together a prolonged period of positive production: In May, Machado was simply overpowered by major league fastballs, producing a puny .059 ISO against them. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. Whether it’s because of his recent controversies or his tepid early-season performance, Machado didn’t come close to making the cut for the final All-Star voting; as of June 17, he was sixth among NL third basemen, with less than half the vote total of the top four (eventual finalists Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Josh Donaldson plus Justin Turner) and just over half that of fifth-place Anthony Rendon. But his recovery from surgery now clouds his outlook and it’s anyone’s guess when exactly he’s healthy enough to be in the lineup. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.

The stats all count the same. He spent five weeks manning shortstop in the absence of the injured Fernando Tatis Jr., where the small-sample metrics say he was slightly below average, but now back at the hot corner, he’s been above average. Today’s Pod Projection is the Orioles young third sacker, Manny Machado.

: 3 percent owned) The first round of the 2010 draft has already produced five major leaguers: Bryce Harper, Drew Pomeranz, Matt Harvey, Yasmani Grandal, and Chris Sale, plus supplemental picks Mike Olt and Chance Ruffin..

He has gotten bigger and stronger over the past 2 years and his home run rate has improved significantly from 2013 to 2014 in the few games he played.

Maybe there is something the Padres can do to make their $300m man more comfortable at home? Website admin will know that you reported it. Website admin will know that you reported it.

and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions. His 124 wRC+ is tied for 25th in the league and is three points ahead of his career mark. He’s hardly the sole reason the Padres, who lost 96 games last year, are 42-42, but he’s already nearly doubled the 1.3 WAR of the 2018 squad’s third basemen (primarily Christian Villanueva, with Wil Myers and Cory Spangenberg seeing significant time there as well), which is to say that he’s been a significant part of the team’s improvement, if not its sole driver.

Sure, but he is awful at home and part of his recent success is fueled by a bonkers road trip to Colorado.

and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous. Once he was able to get around on the heaters, the rest of his batted ball distribution, not surprisingly, clicked back into place, as he began hitting line drives at a healthy clip and the fly balls — and fly ball distance, the key ingredient behind his 16.9% HR/FB rate during this span — fell back into line.

The better question, perhaps, is how much fantasy owners will be scared off by the perception of an injury-prone Machado, and whether some might be disappointed that he hasn’t displayed the instant fantasy magic along the likes of Mike Trout or Yasiel Puig.